Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Hockey: Playoff Preview Round 2

And then there were 8. The field has been cut in half, and the Flames, Wild, Stars, Predators, Islanders, Lightning, Thrashers, and Penguins join the 14 teams that didn't make the playoffs out on the golf courses and into the "wait 'til next year" club.

But there is still a lot of hockey left to be played on the quest for Lord Stanley's Cup, and I'll see what I can do about keeping up my .750 winning percentage on series predictions (6 - 2 round one). 3 of the teams I bet at the beginning of the season to win it all are still alive (Buffalo, Ottawa, and San Jose), and none are facing each other. Yet.

THE WEST

#1 Detroit Red Wings VS. #5 San Jose Sharks

This one should definitely be a hard fought, gritty series. Both of these teams play tough hockey; and even though both of them have plenty of offensive fire power, they both win games by stymieing opposing offenses with strong defensive play. You've gotta like San Jose in this series; they beat a fast, strong young team in Nashville in only 5 games, while it took Detroit 6 to knock off a not-as-strong Calgary team. The Wings will be no pushover, however, especially if they can find a way to translate their home-ice dominance into some solid road play. Still, in a series where goals might be hard to come by, I'll take my chances on Joe Thornton to make some plays.

SAN JOSE IN 6.

#2 Anaheim Ducks VS. #3 Vancouver Canucks

Exactly the series as a Ducks-hater I didn't want to see. The match up is perfect for the Ducks; they are the superior team offensively and defensively. Vancouver only has the better goaltender; but Giguere (and Bryzgalov when necessary) is perfectly capable of handling the load, especially come playoff time. I've said it once and I'll say it again; I hope I'm underrating the Canucks, because I know I'm not overrating the Ducks; they are pretty damn good.

ANAHEIM IN 5.

THE EAST

#1 Buffalo Sabres VS. #6 New York Rangers

This could definitely shape up to be an excellent series. Both of these teams have scoring depth, roll four lines, and have good young goaltenders. After as dominant as the Rangers were in the Thrashers' series, they are becoming a popular pick to be "that team" this year. I don't think so. The Sabres opened the season with a 10 - 0 start; and never looked back, overcoming all injuries and obstacles along the way. This team is the real deal; they are headed to the finals, and whether the Rangers make a series of it or not, they aren't taking four games from this team.

BUFFALO IN 6.

#2 New Jersey Devils VS. #4 Ottawa Senators

On talent alone, I've got the Senators. But every year, the Senators get knocked off in the playoffs because they don't have "it". And I'm still not sure that they do. The Devils, on the other hand, epitomize "it". They are the playoff team of playoff teams. Not to mention, the goaltender match-up; Ray Emery VS. Marty Brodeur; is a no contest in Brodeur's favor, even if Emery has played well this season. I expect the Senators to win a few games, and wouldn't be shocked if they took the series; but I can't pick them against the Devs.

NEW JERSEY IN 7.

A-Rod... are you kidding me?

I predicted before the season began (too bad I didn't have a blog then) that A-Rod was going to have a monster year this year. Last season... a "bad year" of 113 runs, 35 HRs, 121 RBIs, 15 SBs, and a .290 batting average. It was his lowest home run total since 1997, and despite the fact that he was ranked among the best bats at 3rd base (and at any position in the league really, for that matter), A-Rod still somehow managed to disappoint everyone. I figured he'd bounce back with a great year this year.

But wow.

Let's play a fun game called "on pace". It is very easy. First, you take how many games a player has played, then figure out what his numbers are on pace to do if he repeats his current stats consistently over a full season.

Example: Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins

19 games played, 15 runs, 4 HRs, 15 RBIs.

162 divided by 19 = 8.53. Multiplying each stat by 8.53 will give us what he is on pace to do this season;

128 runs, 34 HRs, 128 RBIs.

For my fantasy team's sake, I certainly hope so. Let's try another.

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

18 games played, 11 runs, 5 HRs, 12 RBIs

18 goes into 162 an even 9 times; Albert has played exactly 1/9 of his season. and if he plays the other 8/9's exactly the same, he'll have...

99 runs, 45 HRs, 108 RBIs.

Bit of an off year, but not too bad. As you can see, projections and "on pace" have to be taken with a grain of salt, because a season is so long, it has its ups and downs, hot streaks and slumps, so on and so forth.

But I think you know who I'm doing next.

Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees

18 games, 26 runs, 14 HRs, 34 RBIs.

Already beats a few player's full season projections. But hell, lets assume the next 8/9's are as good as this one;

234 runs, 126 HRs, 306 RBIs.

I'm going to type that one more time.

234 runs, 126 HRs, 306 RBIs.

If that doesn't put into perspective how impressive this guy has been for you, nothing will. Halving that projection; 117/63/153; gives you a scarily realistic look at what this season might have in store.