Thursday, April 26, 2007
Jake Peavy led the pack on Wednesday... can Phil Hughes do it today?
Two of them were great.
Jarrod Washburn allowed only 5 base runners, giving up 3 hits and 2 walks over 9 shutout innings to trump Joe Blanton's impressive game, leading the Seattle Mariners to a 2 - 0 victory.
Jake Peavy also allowed only 5 base runners; 2 hits, 3 walks. Except, he did it in 7 innings, and threw 117 pitches while it took Washburn only 104 to complete his game. So what is the big deal?
Well, Washburn struck out 2 batters.
Peavy struck out 16.
Peavy got 21 outs, and over 75% of them were via strikeout.
At one point in the game, Peavy struck out 9 straight batters, one away from Tom Seaver's record of 10 straight. The 10th batter he faced, Eric Byrnes, check swung on a 2 - 2 pitch; and barely kept his bat from going around. On the 3 - 2 pitch, Byrnes watched a pitch cross the plate right around his knees, but just slightly too low. That is how close Jake Peavy was to tying the record for most consecutive strikeouts.
Too bad it was all for naught, as Stephen Drew's walk off HR capped off a victory for the D-backs, spoiling Peavy's special night.
Thursday, I'll be watching 3 pitchers very closely.
Cole Hamels - I love this kid so much. He is so damn talented. Fresh off his 15 K shutout, he faces a weak Nationals lineup this time around. Gee, I wonder if this will be in my picks of the day?
Phil Hughes - Making his much anticipated debut, Hughes will have the tough task of facing a pretty formidable lineup in the Blue Jays, as well as a solid starting pitcher in AJ Burnett. Still, the potential Jered Weaver of this year has one thing that 29 other ball clubs don't; the best offense in baseball to back him up. If Hughes can pitch 5 innings of 3 or 4 run baseball, he'll get wins more often then not.
And lastly...
Russ Ortiz - What?? Why? Well, with Zito / Cain / Morris / Lowry all locked into roster spots, it is this guy right here that is keeping wonder-prospect Tim Lincecum from getting his shot in the bigs. I just hope the Dodgers crush the ball against Ortiz, and force SF to stop delaying the inevitable and give this kid his shot already!
May the best team win (yes, it may)
Well, April 25th, 2007 was not that day.
The #1 seeded Dallas Mavericks, who fed into the upset hype with a loss in game 1 of their series against the Golden State Warriors, left little doubt as to who was the superior team Wednesday, taking care of business in a 112 - 99 victory.
In hockey, Detroit may have ended the season with the #1 seed, but you'd be hard pressed to find someone willing to argue that the Ducks weren't the best team in the West this year; and tonight they certainly played like it, lighting the lamp on Roberto Luongo 5 times en route to a 5 - 1 victory over the Vancouver Canucks.
As for the best in the East? The Buffalo Sabres, who sometimes looked a bit lethargic against the Islanders in the series that opened the playoffs, were anything but tonight, cruising to a 5 - 2 victory over the Rangers, who were riding the momentum of a sweep against the Atlanta Thrashers.
Do I love an underdog as much as anyone? Sure. But in a world of nonsense and drama, sometimes it is refreshing to just see the best be the best.
Isn't it?
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Hockey: Playoff Preview Round 2
And then there were 8. The field has been cut in half, and the Flames, Wild, Stars, Predators, Islanders, Lightning, Thrashers, and Penguins join the 14 teams that didn't make the playoffs out on the golf courses and into the "wait 'til next year" club.
But there is still a lot of hockey left to be played on the quest for Lord Stanley's Cup, and I'll see what I can do about keeping up my .750 winning percentage on series predictions (6 - 2 round one). 3 of the teams I bet at the beginning of the season to win it all are still alive (Buffalo, Ottawa, and San Jose), and none are facing each other. Yet.
THE WEST
#1 Detroit Red Wings VS. #5 San Jose Sharks
This one should definitely be a hard fought, gritty series. Both of these teams play tough hockey; and even though both of them have plenty of offensive fire power, they both win games by stymieing opposing offenses with strong defensive play. You've gotta like San Jose in this series; they beat a fast, strong young team in Nashville in only 5 games, while it took Detroit 6 to knock off a not-as-strong Calgary team. The Wings will be no pushover, however, especially if they can find a way to translate their home-ice dominance into some solid road play. Still, in a series where goals might be hard to come by, I'll take my chances on Joe Thornton to make some plays.
SAN JOSE IN 6.
#2 Anaheim Ducks VS. #3 Vancouver Canucks
Exactly the series as a Ducks-hater I didn't want to see. The match up is perfect for the Ducks; they are the superior team offensively and defensively. Vancouver only has the better goaltender; but Giguere (and Bryzgalov when necessary) is perfectly capable of handling the load, especially come playoff time. I've said it once and I'll say it again; I hope I'm underrating the Canucks, because I know I'm not overrating the Ducks; they are pretty damn good.
ANAHEIM IN 5.
THE EAST#1 Buffalo Sabres VS. #6 New York Rangers
This could definitely shape up to be an excellent series. Both of these teams have scoring depth, roll four lines, and have good young goaltenders. After as dominant as the Rangers were in the Thrashers' series, they are becoming a popular pick to be "that team" this year. I don't think so. The Sabres opened the season with a 10 - 0 start; and never looked back, overcoming all injuries and obstacles along the way. This team is the real deal; they are headed to the finals, and whether the Rangers make a series of it or not, they aren't taking four games from this team.
BUFFALO IN 6.
#2 New Jersey Devils VS. #4 Ottawa Senators
On talent alone, I've got the Senators. But every year, the Senators get knocked off in the playoffs because they don't have "it". And I'm still not sure that they do. The Devils, on the other hand, epitomize "it". They are the playoff team of playoff teams. Not to mention, the goaltender match-up; Ray Emery VS. Marty Brodeur; is a no contest in Brodeur's favor, even if Emery has played well this season. I expect the Senators to win a few games, and wouldn't be shocked if they took the series; but I can't pick them against the Devs.
NEW JERSEY IN 7.
A-Rod... are you kidding me?
But wow.
Let's play a fun game called "on pace". It is very easy. First, you take how many games a player has played, then figure out what his numbers are on pace to do if he repeats his current stats consistently over a full season.
Example: Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
19 games played, 15 runs, 4 HRs, 15 RBIs.
162 divided by 19 = 8.53. Multiplying each stat by 8.53 will give us what he is on pace to do this season;
128 runs, 34 HRs, 128 RBIs.
For my fantasy team's sake, I certainly hope so. Let's try another.
Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
18 games played, 11 runs, 5 HRs, 12 RBIs
18 goes into 162 an even 9 times; Albert has played exactly 1/9 of his season. and if he plays the other 8/9's exactly the same, he'll have...
99 runs, 45 HRs, 108 RBIs.
Bit of an off year, but not too bad. As you can see, projections and "on pace" have to be taken with a grain of salt, because a season is so long, it has its ups and downs, hot streaks and slumps, so on and so forth.
But I think you know who I'm doing next.
Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
18 games, 26 runs, 14 HRs, 34 RBIs.
Already beats a few player's full season projections. But hell, lets assume the next 8/9's are as good as this one;
234 runs, 126 HRs, 306 RBIs.
I'm going to type that one more time.
234 runs, 126 HRs, 306 RBIs.
If that doesn't put into perspective how impressive this guy has been for you, nothing will. Halving that projection; 117/63/153; gives you a scarily realistic look at what this season might have in store.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Luongo outduels Turco; Canucks take game 7
My Prediction: Dallas Stars over Vancouver Canucks in 6
Well, the title of the article in the newspaper will read something like that. In reality? Both of these goalies were absolutely outstanding, and if either of them had an offense that could put a puck in the net; or perhaps, a less epic performance from the goalie on the other side of the ice; they would have won the series in 4 or 5 games. Unfortunately for Turco, there had to be a loser, and while Turco certainly did is part, the Stars just weren't able to muster up anything on offense tonight other than a single goal.
So now the stage is officially set. Vancouver will face Anaheim, San Jose will face Detroit, Buffalo will face New York, and Ottawa will face New Jersey.
I'll break down each of those series tomorrow. For now? I need to go weep, because I really wanted to see the Ducks play the Sharks, not the Canucks.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
The Devils do it in 60 minutes and the Wings do it in 84; both are moving on
My Prediction: New Jersey Devils over Tampa Bay Lightning in 6
And so the East has been decided, and I've got to tell you; the New Jersey Devils are the perfect playoff hockey team. Think Tom Brady and the Patriots; Marty Brodeur and the Devils are their hockey equivalent.
Are they as dominant? Not necessarily. But both teams have one trait in common that almost always leads to playoff success; they hardly ever make mistakes, and they always make their opponents pay for theirs.
Both teams have in one man; Brady and Brodeur respectively; a guy that can single handedly steal a game on any given night. They also have a core of guys that just compliment each other so well that they look like a team or a unit rather then a bunch of individuals wearing the same jerseys.
But enough of that analogy, the point is simply that the Devils are bred for playoff hockey. They've got the goalie, they've got the defense, and they've got the pesky role players that can shut you down; and chip in goals as well. They've also got a few very talented players on offense, including Patrick Elias, Scott Gomez, and Zach Parise.
Their series against the Senators should make for some great hockey.
Series Result: Detroit Red Wings over Calgary Flames in 6
My Prediction: Detroit Red Wings over Calgary Flames in 7
I'm surprised that the Flames were able to win games 3 and 4 after the way they were completely crushed in games 1 and 2; but alas, they did all they could to make a series of it before falling. The Red Wings are a team to be reckoned with, but their next opponent; either the Stars or the Sharks; isn't going to make life very easy for them. That being said, the tough life will be mutual.
I was disappointed with the Flames lack of... well, flame, throughout this series, especially on the road. I'm not sure whether it was the Red Wings that got them off their game, or whether they just couldn't find it, but it was an extremely disappointing showing, and another early exit that will not be easy for these players to swallow.
Now all we can do is watch and wait, as the Stars / Canucks Game 7 will fill out the rest of the playoff picture for you; and let me get those winning predictions to you as fast as I can.
NBA Playoffs... The Wrap-Up
Plenty of fools already do that for you. I pity the fools. That's right, Mr. T. You have a problem with that?
Here is what I can tell you from my limited basketball knowledge (and this isn't going to be all that shocking or original, either...); The Mavericks and the Suns are really, really good.
And the Spurs and Pistons aren't half bad either. Especially when the playoffs roll around.
In the end, it will be one of those 4 teams. There really isn't any magic in the NBA, because the best teams are simply tiers above the rest. You don't get wild card teams going all the way like in baseball or football, and you don't get 8-seeds going to the finals like you do in hockey.
The Rockets have no chance. If they beat the Jazz, they face off against the Mavericks next. Then, miraculously, they win that series, they face off against the Suns. 2 miracles later, you play the best of the East, which despite the fact that its a joke of a conference as far as depth is concerned, its got a few decent teams in it that could conceivably beat whatever beat-up team comes out of the West.
It'll be the Pistons out of the East. If anyone beats them, it'll be the Cavs or the Bulls. But I don't think that is going to happen.
It'll be the Mavs out of the West. Anyone picking Golden State in this series is a bigger joke then I was for picking the Wild over the Ducks. Seriously, get over it Golden State fans. You are going to lose this series in 5 games maximum.
My radio show co-host Brandon Marcus said to me "I hope the Mavericks lose that series so I can give you heat for it". I'd like ALL of you to give me heat for it. Go ahead. If the series goes to SIX, make my life a living hell.
All that said, if anyone will actually beat the Mavericks, it'll be the Suns. When these two teams face off, it'll be a playoff basketball series I'll actually watch; and that is saying something. I don't think the Spurs have what it takes to keep up with either of these teams this year; but time will tell.
So, Mavs/Suns over Pistons in the finals. Shocking. Don't think anyone has ever made this prediction, have they? I feel so original.
For the record, I bet the Phoenix Suns 1 Unit to win 6 Units at the beginning of the year. Now they are bet 1 to win 2. Go Suns!
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Turco and Hamels dominate the day; and a note on Kings Hockey
Wonder-kid Cole Hamels, now the undisputed ace of the Phillies pitching staff with Brett Myers' demotion (which is still dumbfounding to me), put up a pretty decent line today;
9 innings pitched, 5 hits, 2 walks, 1 earned run, and the win.
Oh, and FIFTEEN strikeouts.
That lowers his season ERA to 2.57 and catapults him into the league lead in strike outs.
This kid is the real deal. I've been a huge fan since his debut last year, and think he will be a premier pitcher in the league for years to come; as long as he can avoid the shoulder issues that plagued him when he was younger.
Now, on to Marty Turco.
The same Marty Turco that has been single handedly blamed for every playoff series the Stars have been in since he has been their starter. And rightfully so. The guy was always a brick wall during the regular season, but he was very human between the pipes in the playoffs. If he didn't show something this year, he was on his way out in Dallas.
And he's shown something alright.
His shutout tonight marks his 3rd of the series. Yes, 3rd. Of the series. 3 shutouts in a single post season is impressive enough.
Turco has officially shut up his critics with this line: 1.20 Goal Against Average and a .955 Save Percentage. He's stopping an average of more than 19 of every 20 shots he faces.
And remember, he gave up 4 goals in the first 3 periods of this series. Since then?
0.77 GAA, .972 SV%
Dallas is going to head into Vancouver and win this series, as I predicted they would in the first place. And they are going to do it because of; not in spite of; Marty Turco.
Lastly, I read a pretty solid article on the Kings and the rebuild they are going through right now tonight. As I often try to explain to people, the Kings are heading in the right direction. The article isn't perfect, but its a pretty good sum up of what the Kings are doing right as well as what they still need to do to become a playoff team. Check it out.
Sabres and Sharks take care of business
My Prediction: Buffalo Sabres over New York Islanders in 4
No surprises at all here. The only concern from the Sabres' point of view was the lack of complete dominance in the series; games were a lot closer than they should have been when you consider how much better of a team Buffalo is. But that is being extremely nit-picky; this is playoff hockey. You can expect to be playing opponents at their best, and all that really matters when it is all said and done is who is leading when the last buzzer sounds.
Now, the Sabres just need to watch and wait to see how the Tampa Bay / New Jersey series pans out. A New Jersey win lands them a bid against the Rangers. A Tampa Bay upset will result in a series against Buffalo. Either way, you have to consider the Sabres the favorite, but both of these teams - especially the Rangers - don't look to be going down easy to anyone this year.
Series Result: San Jose Sharks over Nashville Predators in 5
My Prediction: San Jose Sharks over Nashville Predators in 7
I'm glad to see the Sharks win this series for multiple reasons. First of all, I've got money on them to win the Stanley Cup. Second of all, I think they are the team with the best chance to beat the Ducks in the West. And, lastly, with the way that the Predators were cheap-shotting this series, it would have been a shame to see the Sharks fall that way.
This Sharks team was my early favorite out of the West, and they played like it in this series, overcoming a vastly talented team in Nashville; and doing it in only 5 games, too. While I've conceded that the Ducks are the team to beat in the West, I still do like the Sharks' chances to do damage. With the Flames and Stars still hanging on for dear life, the West is still full of question marks; but one thing is for sure, I'll be taking the Sharks over WHOEVER they play in the 2nd round (unless its the Ducks... I'll save that can of worms until its in front of me, thank you).
Huge disappointment for Nashville, who looked like a championship-calibur team all season long. Going out and getting Forsberg at the expense of some young talent was supposed to translate into playoff success; not just a single playoff win. But with goaltenders Tomas Vokoun and Chris Mason both locked up through next year, the Predators have the most important position in hockey nice and sound; and even have a bit of room to maneuver if they decided to deal Mason. They'll likely be back in the thick of things next year; but with Kariya and Forsberg both unrestricted free agents, this would have been a nice year for them to get hot.
Friday, April 20, 2007
Picks of the Day
San Jose Sharks over Nashville Predators MONEYLINE
Bet 1 Unit to win 1.10 Units
Simply a bargain bet. Nashville should take this game at home, but SJ has been the better team in this series, and there is no reason not to take them with no spread at these odds.
Vancouver Canucks over Dallas Stars MONEYLINE
Bet 1 Unit to win 1.30 Units
(Game played on Saturday)
Same as above, if someone said "Lets flip a coin, if you win I'll give you $13, if I win you give me $10", wouldn't you take it? Every game in this series has been a coin flip, so I'll take Luongo at better-than-even odds.
Good luck!
RESULTS: 1.10 Units Won (205.46 Units)
