Friday, May 4, 2007

It's Lincecum time!

If you didn't read when I put you on prospect watch, click here.

Update: He is 4 - 0 with a 0.29 ERA and 46 Ks in Triple A ball this year.

And now, Russ Ortiz has finally hit the DL, and Lincecum will make his major league debut Sunday night against the Phillies.

If you play fantasy baseball, go pick him up. If you have plans for Sunday night, cancel them.

This kid will be fun to watch.

That is all.

Thursday, May 3, 2007

When Roy Oswalt is on the mound, why does Cincinatti even show up?

Very few teams in sports are simply manhandled by one man the way the Cincinatti Reds are simply manhandled by Roy Oswalt.

The fact that it is Roy Oswalt isn't too embarrassing. I've made the argument countless times that Roy Oswalt is in the top 3 pitchers in baseball. I rank him behind Johan Santana, but ahead of everyone else in the league; with the exception of MAYBE "The Doc" Roy Halladay. But those are definitely the top 3 pitchers in baseball in my opinion; yes, ahead of Chris Carpenter.

If you want to argue with me about that, go check the stats yourself. If you see a compelling argument, make it. But I'm not here to argue where Roy Oswalt ranks in the league today, I'm here to point out where he ranks against the Reds.

That is no argument. He is number one.

Oswalt's outing on Wednesday; 8 innings pitched, 4 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, 2 strikeouts; was simply methodical. The Astros got 2 runs in the first inning. That was all they needed. They went on to win the game 3 - 1.

Over the course of his career, Roy Oswalt's numbers are very impressive;

1251.1 innings pitched, 102 wins, 49 losses, 1045 strikeouts, 3.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP.

Over the course of his career AGAINST THE REDS, Roy Oswalt's numbers are just silly;

150.0 innings pitched, 18 wins, 1 loss, 129 strikeouts, 2.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP.

18 - 1?

If Roy Oswalt got to face the Reds every game, people wouldn't argue with me when I named him as the league's elite.

Oh what a difference 34 seconds makes...

Just ask the San Jose Sharks.

The Sharks had the Red Wings right where they wanted them. With under a minute left in regulation and a one goal lead, all the Sharks had to do was hang on. They would then hold a 3 - 1 series lead over the #1 seeded Red Wings, spelling certain doom for the Wings; very few teams have come back from 3 - 1 deficits, and this Sharks team doesn't look like the kind of team that would allow that to happen.

I was already looking ahead to the next series, Sharks VS. Ducks, when Robert Lang scored a goal with 34 seconds left on the clock to tie the game. The San Jose crowd was stunned silent. So was I.

In a hard fought overtime with plenty of chances both ways, Mathieu Schneider scored, and the Detroit Red Wings prevailed.

The series is now tied 2 - 2, and there are only 3 games left to be played; 2 of them in Detroit.

34 seconds separated the Sharks from needing only 1 win in 3. Now they need two.

And quite frankly, I'm not sure they are going to be able to pull it off. The series is definitely leaning in Detroit's favor.

This, of course, isn't the first time the Sharks have had a single moment (potentially in this case) break their season. Look no further than the 2006 playoffs. San Jose beat Edmonton twice at home, bringing the series to 2 - 0. They then traveled to Edmonton, where they were locked up in a 2 - 2 tie. The game headed into double overtime, where with 7 minutes left in the second OT period, the league's highest goal scorer had a glorious chance to end it;



(Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOYjXD31DsE)

Roloson robbed Cheechoo, sending the home crowd into a frenzy. In triple overtime, Edmonton scored to win the game.

They also won the next 3, and sent San Jose home packing.

IF Cheechoo scores that goal, the Sharks win that series.

IF Robert Lang doesn't get that bounce, the Sharks win that series.

IF the refs weren't a bunch of cheating bastards, Tom Brady's tuck would have been ruled a fumble, and the Raiders win that game.

Sorry about that last one... my mind wanders from time to time.

Point being, the Red Wings are laden with veterans that have been through the Stanley Cup playoffs many times, have championship rings, and know how to handle the ups and downs of a tough battle to the finals. I'm not so sure about the Sharks. Have they learned from last season, and not allow one moment to take a series away from them?

Or will they fall, and enter the countless other "What if?" cases the sports world has to offer?

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Clutch enough for you?

Dirk doesn't deserve MVP!

So what that he dominates the regular season! True MVP's step up in the playoffs, too, and this guy is nothing but a big-time no show!

Right?

If only he would have held true to those whispers for one more night. The Golden State Warriors would be moving on to the next round of the NBA playoffs.

I'll be honest. Since they completely embarrassed my pride and exposed me as the basketball knowledge-less fool that I am, I've stopped rooting for Dallas and have done what any neutral sports fan would do in this situation; root for the underdog.

And so, when Golden State took a 9 point lead with very little time left in the game, I was pretty excited. The underdog was going to win, and the behemoth Dallas team would fall; leaving my pre-season bet of Phoenix Suns to win it all in great shape.

Dirk casually strolled up the court and drained a 3-pointer. He didn't look to anyone else. He just got the ball, picked his spot, and nailed it. Lead cut to 6.

The Warriors ran the clock down as much as they could and then put up a bad shot. Mavs got the rebound. Got the ball to Dirk. Calmly, effortlessly, like it was shooting practice, Dirk picked his spot from 3-point land once again, and drained it. Lead cut to 3.

After the lead was cut to 1, Golden State began to panic, and turned the ball over. Dallas put the nail in the coffin; and guess who it was attacking the basket to draw the foul to put the Mavs up for good?

Dirk Nowitzki.

For a guy that was beginning to challenge Marty Turco for his spot as biggest choke-artist in Dallas come playoff time, Dirk certainly didn't play like a choke; he played like an MVP.

Now, Golden State needs to win Game 6 at home. If they don't, there just isn't any way they are going back to Dallas and winning Game 7 there. So if the Warriors look up at the scoreboard at the end of Game 6 and see a higher number under DALLAS on the jumbotron, they'll have to shake their heads in disgust at the 9 point lead they gave away.

The give away that was about 25% their fault for bad shot selection and lackluster defense...

and the take away that was 75% Dirk Nowitzki.

Tuesday, May 1, 2007

Yanks take one step forward and two steps backward.

After the 5th inning of the Yankee's rout/no-hitter, I had a nice little blog already writing itself in my head.

The 2007 Yankees came into today with a share of the record for most consecutive games using 5 or more pitchers; 10.

Injures as well as a shortage of talent were to blame. It didn't help that the Yankee bats have been ice-cold in the meantime, actually asking the pitching staff to keep them in games. They simply couldn't. Bad recipe.

5 innings into Phil Hughes' no-hitter, I was ready to pat myself on the back. Not only have I been praising this kid since he has come up, I've avidly supported the decisions while others have screamed "too soon". I used my top waiver priority in my fantasy baseball league to get him. I predicted that not only would the Yankees hit well tonight, but he would pitch well, and break that ugly streak of 5+ pitchers a game.

The self-love fest was looking great until Phil Hughes had his no-hitter bid come to an end.

No, it wasn't due to a hit; he didn't give one of those up. It wasn't due to pitch count; he'd only thrown 83. It was a hamstring injury; one that would force him out of the game and out of the lineup for four to six weeks.

He joins fellow starters Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, and Jeff Karstens on the crowded DL; leaving Joe Torre with a pitching staff that looks a little something like this;

1. Andy Pettitte (3.00 ERA)
2. Chein-Ming Wang (5.84 ERA)
3. Kei Igawa (6.08 ERA)
4. ????????? (?.?? ERA)
5. ????????? (?.?? ERA)

No, those question marks aren't lack of research on my part. I really have no idea; and I don't think the Yankees do, either.

On a day that was looking to be a turning point and a bright spot in the season, the Yankees leave the game with a win in the standings but another crippling blow to their team.

I'm sure most of you won't shed any tears for the Yankees, as they are one of the most hated teams in sports... but at least feel bad for Phil Hughes. The kid was 8 outs away from making history, and becoming the only AL rookie since 1991 to pitch a no-no. Would have liked to see him get the chance.

Oh, and feel bad for my fantasy team, too. I'll miss him.

New Blog!

Alright, so I realized last night that many of you don't want to sift through my picks of the day every day, and just want to read my columns/opinions.

Others of you want my picks, and don't really care what I think about anything else.

Hopefully some of you want both.

Either way, I've cut my blog in half and now will maintain two blogs.

http://vegasdavesdime.blogspot.com
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Will feature only columns/opinions/essays/blurbs/whatever and will not focus on gambling.

http://vegasdavespicks.blogspot.com
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Will feature my daily picks and insight into plays of the day

The layouts are identical, and there is a link in the top right corner so you can easily jump back and forth. Or, just stay on the one you like.

I hope you all like the change. It took me a LOT of work to get done!

Monday, April 30, 2007

What exactly are the Mavericks doing?

Listen, Dallas Mavericks -

You should be ashamed of yourselves.

Don't mean any disrespect to Golden State, they've played some excellent basketball. And they've done exactly what an upset team has got to do; steal one on the road and then win your home games.

They are 75% of the way there.

Dallas lost 15 games this year. 15. Of 82.

They started the season off cold and dropped their first 4 games. They also lost 4 of their 10 games in April, seeing as they were already in cruise control, having the West locked up. They were using their key players sparingly in these games.

In the stretch after their opening 4 losses (which can be attributed to a slow start) and before the month of April (which can be attributed to resting players), Dallas lost only 7 games... out of
68.

61 wins. 7 losses.

During that span, they had streaks of 12 wins, 13 wins, and 17 wins. Yes. Separate streaks.

There is a word for a team like the Dallas Mavericks. DOMINANT.

Mark Cuban has done an excellent job putting together the best team in the league. The fans have done an excellent job supporting it. They blew it last year in the playoffs and have waited all year for the chance to redeem themselves.

And this is how they show it.

I know that I gave Golden State no respect. Of course, I don't know basketball, so that wasn't that big of a deal. But it isn't like I was alone. Find me people that with a serious expression on their face picked this to go past 6 games.

What's pathetic, though, is that whether or not the general public respected the Warriors or not, you KNEW the Mavericks would. After all, any team that beats you all 3 times they play you, and is responsible for a whopping 20% of your total losses on the season, is going to get your best effort.

So, I'm to understand that the best team in the NBA's best effort is THIS. I've actually watched large chunks of this series, and I'll be damned if this is the best team in the NBA. This team has been flat out pathetic on defense. I can't believe this team dominated during the regular season. Any team capable of playing this poorly on the grandest stage of all should not have been the clear best in the NBA.

Is Dallas going to lose this series? All comes down to game 6. I can't see them losing game 5 (well, I certainly CAN, but I mean honestly, they'd BETTER not for the sake of everyone's sanity). Game 7 in Dallas is another game they simply don't drop.

Game 6 in Golden State? Can't say a Warriors victory would even make me raise an eyebrow.

Congratulations, Golden State. I want to reiterate that I mean them no disrespect. Even if they drop the next 3 games in the series, just what they have done already is more than enough to respect and build on over the next few years.

Shame on you, Dallas. If this is how you thank your fans for all of their support, and this is how you show them that you won't disappoint them again this season, then I'd consider them some of the unluckiest fans in America.

This coming from an Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Kings fan.

Saturday, April 28, 2007

With the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, the Oakland Raiders select; Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech.

In my dreams.

I have no beef with Jamarcus Russell. In fact, I like the idea of having a guy as big and strong as he is at QB. I like the idea of having a guy that can throw 80+ yards.

I like the idea of having a franchise quarterback.

I'm just not sure he is it.

Kyle Boller could throw the ball a mile. So can Mike Vick.

What you can't teach a player is awareness, great decision making, patience in the pocket, and leadership. Russell may or may not have or develop these talents. He may or may not
be a star in the league someday.

Make no mistake about it; there are no ifs, ands, or buts about Calvin Johnson. Johnson is the most talented player in the draft; he is built like a house, and has incredible speed. He also has that magnetic field effect that if you throw the ball in his general direction, it will be caught, no doubt about it. This guy will be a star in the league for years to come, and will make a serious impact on whatever team he joins THIS year.

Randy Moss hates Oakland; whether he isn't trying or is traded, he is no longer much more than an ultra-recognizable name to this team. Jerry Porter is the real deal, but he can't be the only guy. Ronald Curry is a perfect 3rd WR.

Dominic Rhodes, LaMont Jordan, and Justin Fargas make up an unspectacular but solid backfield.

The O-line leaves much to be desired, but there is still time for at least one or two of these guys to develop into something. 3 more O-linemen get drafted in this draft. You can only hope someone pans out.

Quarterback? Walters was not given a fair chance last year. No offensive line, no running game to take pressure off the passing game, no time to throw and no weapons to throw to (Moss was either not trying or being double covered at all times). QB of the future, highly unlikely; but the guys got potential.

Defense is excellent, and young. It will continue to improve and impress, especially when the offense actually lets it stay off the field for more than 3 downs every once in a while.

So the Raiders over the next few years need to address 4 positions; QB, RB, OT, and WR.

OT - Joe Thomas; absolute sure thing, house, impenetrable. So was Robert Gallery. Just like the Lions can't draft a WR high again, the Raiders can't draft an O-lineman high again after that bust.

RB - Adrian Peterson; love him, but not a 1st overall pick. Would love to trade down to get him, but Jordan/Rhodes isn't all that bad, plus Peterson just might be injury prone and somewhat of a risk.

QB - Quinn or Russell? I concur with the overall consensus that Jamarcus is the pick; he's got the size and strength over Quinn. And forget the Sugar Bowl; Quinn is flat out overrated. I think both of these guys are very high risk. This coming from the guy who said Tom Brady was a one-hit-wonder, and that Vick and Harrington would both make great pro QBs... maybe I should just leave QB ranking alone.

WR - Calvin Johnson. Best player in the draft. Flat out amazing.

Seems simple enough to me. Best argument I've heard against drafting Calvin Johnson? "Who is going to throw to him?" That is short term thinking. This season, yes, it just might be frustrating to be a Raider fan again. But next year's draft will be chock full of QBs, plus free agency; look at how the Saints went out and signed Drew Brees.

The right pick is Calvin Johnson.

Jamarcus Russell isn't the "wrong" pick, and I hope more than anyone that he comes into the league and excels for the Raiders.

...because Johnson WILL be excelling wherever he ends up.

My Mock Top 5

1. Oakland Raiders - Jamarcus Russell
2. Detroit Lions - Joe Thomas
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Calvin Johnson
5. Arizona Cardinals - Adrian Peterson

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Jake Peavy led the pack on Wednesday... can Phil Hughes do it today?

Plenty of pitchers were really good Wednesday. John Lackey, Tim Hudson, Joe Blanton, Curt Schilling, Brandon Webb.

Two of them were great.

Jarrod Washburn allowed only 5 base runners, giving up 3 hits and 2 walks over 9 shutout innings to trump Joe Blanton's impressive game, leading the Seattle Mariners to a 2 - 0 victory.

Jake Peavy also allowed only 5 base runners; 2 hits, 3 walks. Except, he did it in 7 innings, and threw 117 pitches while it took Washburn only 104 to complete his game. So what is the big deal?

Well, Washburn struck out 2 batters.

Peavy struck out 16.

Peavy got 21 outs, and over 75% of them were via strikeout.

At one point in the game, Peavy struck out 9 straight batters, one away from Tom Seaver's record of 10 straight. The 10th batter he faced, Eric Byrnes, check swung on a 2 - 2 pitch; and barely kept his bat from going around. On the 3 - 2 pitch, Byrnes watched a pitch cross the plate right around his knees, but just slightly too low. That is how close Jake Peavy was to tying the record for most consecutive strikeouts.

Too bad it was all for naught, as Stephen Drew's walk off HR capped off a victory for the D-backs, spoiling Peavy's special night.

Thursday, I'll be watching 3 pitchers very closely.

Cole Hamels - I love this kid so much. He is so damn talented. Fresh off his 15 K shutout, he faces a weak Nationals lineup this time around. Gee, I wonder if this will be in my picks of the day?

Phil Hughes - Making his much anticipated debut, Hughes will have the tough task of facing a pretty formidable lineup in the Blue Jays, as well as a solid starting pitcher in AJ Burnett. Still, the potential Jered Weaver of this year has one thing that 29 other ball clubs don't; the best offense in baseball to back him up. If Hughes can pitch 5 innings of 3 or 4 run baseball, he'll get wins more often then not.

And lastly...

Russ Ortiz - What?? Why? Well, with Zito / Cain / Morris / Lowry all locked into roster spots, it is this guy right here that is keeping wonder-prospect Tim Lincecum from getting his shot in the bigs. I just hope the Dodgers crush the ball against Ortiz, and force SF to stop delaying the inevitable and give this kid his shot already!

May the best team win (yes, it may)

Everyone loves an underdogs. They are more fun to root for than the star teams. And, as has been said plenty of times before; every dog has his day.

Well, April 25th, 2007 was not that day.

The #1 seeded Dallas Mavericks, who fed into the upset hype with a loss in game 1 of their series against the Golden State Warriors, left little doubt as to who was the superior team Wednesday, taking care of business in a 112 - 99 victory.

In hockey, Detroit may have ended the season with the #1 seed, but you'd be hard pressed to find someone willing to argue that the Ducks weren't the best team in the West this year; and tonight they certainly played like it, lighting the lamp on Roberto Luongo 5 times en route to a 5 - 1 victory over the Vancouver Canucks.

As for the best in the East? The Buffalo Sabres, who sometimes looked a bit lethargic against the Islanders in the series that opened the playoffs, were anything but tonight, cruising to a 5 - 2 victory over the Rangers, who were riding the momentum of a sweep against the Atlanta Thrashers.

Do I love an underdog as much as anyone? Sure. But in a world of nonsense and drama, sometimes it is refreshing to just see the best be the best.

Isn't it?